Dollar Trapped in Yen Doldrums With Fibonacci Topping Cloud

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The dollar is stuck in the doldrums against the yen, caught between two key technical indicators suggesting it will remain in a range until U.S. jobs data this week, according to IG Markets Securities Ltd.

The U.S. currency tested last week the 76.40 percent Fibonacci retracement of the high reached June 5 and the low set July 8, climbing 0.01 yen above it to 124.58 yen on July 30 before falling back. It has also rebounded each time after falling toward the ichimoku-cloud that’s acting as a floor amid speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. The greenback was at 124.08 at 9:27 a.m. in Tokyo on Monday, while the top of the cloud was 123.47.

Having risen for three straight days through July 30, the the dollar may be prone to selling, Ishikawa said, before the release of U.S. reports this week on nonfarm payrolls, wages and unemployment. The greenback may test the top of the ichimoku cloud at 123.36, he said.

Breaking the currency’s recent range will require stronger U.S. data on wages and labor costs, said Jun Kato, senior fund manager in Tokyo at Shinkin Asset Management Co. The dollar may climb toward 125 yen as soon as this month, he said.

Source: Bloomberg

Oil Extends Drop as Iran Pledges Quick Output Boost Amid Glut

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Oil extended its biggest monthly slump in nearly 7 years as Iran vowed to boost output almost immediately after sanctions against the Persian Gulf producer are lifted.

Futures in New York dropped as much as 1.6 percent, after capping a 21 percent drop in July on Friday. Iran can increase production by 500,000 barrels a day within a week after the end of sanctions and by 1 million barrels a day within a month after that, said state-run Islamic Republic News Agency, citing Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh.

Crude slipped into a bear market last month as raw materials slumped amid expanding supplies and concerns that demand in China may falter with slower economic growth. Sanctions against Iran’s oil industry should be lifted by late November, Iranian oil ministry’s Shana news agency reported.

West Texas Intermediate for September delivery lost as much as 77 cents to $46.35 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $46.81 at 8 a.m. Singapore time. Total volume was 97 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day.

Brent for September settlement slipped 45 cents to $51.76 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices are down 24 percent since this year’s high on May 6. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $4.96 to WTI.

Source : Bloomberg

Asian Stocks Fall on China Factory Data as Energy Shares Retreat

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Asian stocks fell for the first time in four days as data showed a Chinese factory gauge slipped to a five-month low and energy shares retreated amid a drop in oil.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index slipped 0.3 percent to 141.67 as of 9:07 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure lost 0.4 percent last week for a second weekly decline. The official China Purchasing Managers’ Index was 50 in July, compared with the median estimate of 50.1 in a Bloomberg survey and down from June’s 50.2. Energy shares sank as crude futures in New York slid as much as 1.6 percent after Iran claimed it will be able to bolster production a week after sanctions are lifted.

Japan’s Topix index fell 0.1 percent. More than 70 companies in the nation’s benchmark gauge are scheduled to report earnings today.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.4 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index gains 0.5 percent. Markets in Hong Kong and China are yet to open.

Futures on the FTSE A50 Index of China’s largest companies advanced 0.4 percent in most recent trading. The Shanghai Composite Index resumed a decline last week, tumbling 10 percent after three weekly gains. Most of the loss came on July 27, when the Chinese measure tumbled 8.5 percent for its largest daily slump since 2007.

Source : Bloomberg

Japan Stocks Fall for First Time in Four Days as Crude Oil Drops

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Japanese stocks fell, with the Topix index headed for its first loss in four days, as energy explorers declined amid lower crude oil prices.

The Topix dropped 0.1 percent to 1,658.40 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo, after Friday capping a 1.8 percent increase for July. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average slipped 0.3 percent to 20,514.27. More than 70 companies in the Topix will report quarterly results Monday.

Of the 903 firms that have reported results this season and for which estimates are available, 62 percent exceeded profit expectations, an improvement from the 48 percent that beat forecasts in the previous quarter, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Energy shares led declines on the Topix as crude futures in New York slid as much as 1.6 percent after Iran claimed it will be able to bolster production a week after sanctions are lifted.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose less than 0.1 percent after the underlying measure slipped 0.2 percent on Friday in New York.

An official gauge of Chinese manufacturing at the weekend slid to a five-month low. Chinese stocks sank the most since 2009 in July as regulators struggled to stave off an equity rout amid weakening growth in the world’s second-largest economy. Greek markets are set to resume following a five-week suspension.

Source : Bloomberg