Dollar Near Three-Month Low as Fed Rate Increase View Recedes

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The dollar stayed near its lowest in more than three months as a slew of weak data further scaled back market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year.

The greenback fell to its weakest in seven weeks versus the euro on Wednesday and declined for a third day against the yen as disappointing economic reports, including U.S. retail sales and Chinese inflation, highlighted the risks to global growth that kept the Fed from raising rates last month.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was at 1,183.85 as of 8:57 a.m. in Tokyo from 1,183.45 in New York, where it closed at the weakest since June 30. The greenback was unchanged at $1.1474 against the euro after slumping 0.8 percent on Wednesday. The dollar was little changed at 118.84 yen following a 0.8 percent loss on Wednesday.

Source: Bloomberg

Emas Menguat ke 3 Bulan Tertinggi Karena Inflasi Ebb Picu Spekulasi The Fed

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Emas menguat ke level tertinggi dalam lebih dari tiga bulan sebagai tanda-tanda lebih lanjut dari meredanya inflasi global melemahkan kasus bagi Federal Reserve untuk menaikkan suku bunga AS.

Data inflasi konsumen China moderat, dan harga produsen memperpanjang rekor penurunan, menurut data pemerintah hari ini. Di AS, harga grosir meluncur pada bulan September yang terbesar sejak awal tahun ini, sementara penjualan ritel naik kurang dari perkiraan ekonom.

Emas telah naik lebih dari 5% dalam bulan ini, berada di jalur untuk kenaikan terbesar sejak Januari, sebagai bukti melemahnya perekonomian meningkatkan spekulasi bahwa The Fed akan menunda pengetatan kebijakan moneter tahun ini. Suku bunga yang lebih tinggi menekan daya tarik emas karena tidak membayar bunga.

Emas berjangka untuk pengiriman Desember naik 0,9% ke level $ 1,175.70 per ons pada pukul 10:31 pagi di Comex New York, setelah menyentuh $ 1,178.70, level tertinggi sejak 30 Juni. Logam menuju keuntungan beruntun keempat.

Logam diperdagangkan di atas 200-hari pergerakan rata-rata, saat ini berada di $ 1,176.03, untuk pertama kalinya sejak bulan Mei.(frk)

Sumber: Bloomberg

Australian Jobs Unexpectedly Fall in September, Aussie Drops

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Australian employers unexpectedly cut jobs in September, signaling record-low interest rates are yet to put the economy on a sustainable footing and offset a slump in mining investment.

Employment fell 5,100 from August compared with a median forecast of a 9,600 increase.

The jobless rate held at 6.2 percent, matching the median forecast.

Full-time jobs fell 13,900; part-time employment rose by 8,900

The participation rate, a measure of the labor force as a proportion of the population, fell to 64.9 percent from 65 percent in August and compared with a median forecast of 65 percent

The central bank cut its benchmark rate to a record-low 2 percent in May but investment by non-mining firms has so far failed to pick up leaving housing construction as one of the few bright spots in the economy.

“The labor market’s resilience masks weak fundamental trends, which are likely to weigh on domestic demand in future,” Konstantinos Venetis, an economist at Lombard Street Research, said in a research note ahead of the release. “The RBA’s task is only going to get harder from here. Domestic and external macro headwinds are set to intensify, skewing the risks for real GDP growth to the downside.”

The Australian dollar fell and traded at 73.11 U.S. cents at 11:34 a.m. in Sydney, from 73.40 cents before the data was released.

Source: Bloomberg

Most Asian Stocks Fall as Stronger Yen Weighs on Japanese Shares

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Most Asian stocks dropped, tracking declines in U.S. shares, as a stronger yen dragged down Japanese equities.

About two shares fell for each that rose on the dollar-denominated MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which added 0.2 percent to 131.73 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix index slid 0.5 percent after the yen gained 0.8 percent against the dollar on Wednesday as traders pared back bets on a U.S. interest-rate increase this year. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.5 percent as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. predicted earnings will decline next year and quarterly results from JPMorgan Chase & Co. disappointed. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped for the first time in six days on Wednesday after data showed Chinese factory-gate prices matched their biggest slump since the global financial crisis.

South Korea’s Kospi index slipped 0.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.2 percent. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index lost 0.1 percent. Markets in China and Hong Kong have yet to start trading.

Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index gained 1 percent in most recent trading, while contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland shares traded in Hong Kong added 0.2 percent, as did those on the benchmark Hang Seng Index.

E-mini futures on the S&P 500 gained 0.2 percent after the underlying gauge posted its first back-to-back declines in more than two weeks.

Bets on the Federal Reserve boosting borrowing costs at its October meeting slid to just 4 percent and odds of an increase before the end of the year are now 27 percent.

Source: Bloomberg

Japanese Stocks Fall for Third Day as Yen Rises Against Dollar

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Japanese stocks fell for a third day after the dollar continued to tumble against the yen yen as investors became more certain the Federal Reserve will hold off on raising U.S. interest rates. Electrical appliance makers and shippers led losses.

The Topix index dropped 0.4 percent to 1,465.28 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, with three shares falling for every two that rose. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 0.6 percent to 17,783.02. The yen traded near a seven-week high of at 118.72 per dollar after strengthening for the past three days, reducing the outlook for overseas earnings by Japanese exporters.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.2 percent after the underlying gauge fell 0.5 percent on Wednesday, marking its first back-to-back declines in more than two weeks. Investors are anxious about corporate profits as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. predicted earnings will decline next year and quarterly results from JPMorgan Chase & Co. disappointed.

The odds that a U.S. rate increase will be delayed until at least 2016 climbed to the highest this year. Traders’ bets that the Fed will lift its benchmark by year-end have dropped to less than a 30 percent chance, and aren’t much higher for January. For March, the probability has tumbled to about 49 percent, from 66 percent at the start of the month.

Source: Bloomberg