WTI Crude Slides for a Second Day as U.S. Debt Talks Continue

Bloomberg (14/10) -- West Texas Intermediate fell for a second day as U.S. lawmakers continued to negotiate an accord to raise the government’s debt limit amid concern a potential default may slow global economic growth and sap fuel demand.

Futures slid as much as 0.8 percent in New York after capping the fourth loss in five weeks on Oct. 11. Senate leaders wrapped up almost four hours of debate without a resolution yesterday as a lapse in borrowing authority looms on Oct. 17. Exports from China, the world’s second-biggest crude consumer, unexpectedly fell in September, according to customs data.

“The jitters will remain as the fiscal mismanagement continues in the U.S.,” said Jonathan Barratt, the chief executive officer of Barratt’s Bulletin in Sydney who predicts investors will buy West Texas contracts at about $101 a barrel. “The Chinese export data was woeful.”
WTI for November delivery dropped as much as 81 cents to $101.21 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $101.49 at 11:01 a.m. Sydney time. The contract slipped 1 percent to $102.02 on Oct. 11, capping a 1.8 percent decline for the week. The volume of all futures traded was about 38 percent below the 100-day average.

Brent for November settlement fell as much as 52 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $110.76 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $9.45 to WTI futures, expanding for a sixth day to the widest gap since June.
 

Emas rebound dari terendah tiga bulan

Bloomberg , ( 14/10 ) - Emas rebound dari level terendah tiga bulan setelah para pemimpin Senat AS yang masih berjuang untuk merancang kesepakatan dalam meningkatkan batas utang negara dan menghindari default. Bullion untuk pengiriman segera naik sebanyak 0,5 persen di $ 1,279.05 per ounce dan berada di level $ 1,273.60 pukul 07:43 pagi di Singapura. Jumat lalu harga sempat jatuh ke posisi terendah sejak Juli di $ 1,260.61 diatas harapan tercapainya kesepakatan. Emas untuk pengiriman Desember naik 0,4 persen di $ 1,273.30 per ounce di Comex, New York.Pemimpin Mayoritas Senat, Harry Reid sedang bernegosiasi dengan Pemimpin Minoritas Mitch McConnell setelah pembicaraan antara Presiden Barack Obama dan Ketua DPR John Boehner tidak berlangsung mulus. Kini AS hanya mempunyai batas waktu hingga 17 Oktober sebelum otoritas pinjaman berakhir untuk menghindari default dan melanjutkan operasional pemerintahan secara penuh.

'Selama beberapa pekan terakhir, harga telah dipengaruhi oleh apa yang terjadi di AS terkait anggaran dan shutdown,' kata Alexandra Knight, ekonom dari National Australia Bank Ltd. 'Ini akan terus menciptakan gejolak.'

Emas menuju penurunan tahunan pertamanya sejak tahun 2000 pada ekspektasi bahwa the Fed akan memperlambat laju pembelian obligasi senilai $ 85 milyar secara bulanan. Kepemillikan di SPDR Gold Trust, exchange-traded product bullion terbesar, turun menjadi 890,98 metrik ton pada 11 Oktober kemarin, level terendah sejak Februari 2009. (brc)
 

Gold Rebounds From Three-Month Low as U.S. Debt Talks Drag On

Bloomberg, (14/10) -- Gold rebounded from a three-month low as U.S. Senate leaders struggled to draft an accord to increase the nation’s debt limit and avert a default.

Bullion for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.5 percent to $1,279.05 an ounce and was at $1,273.60 at 7:43 a.m. in Singapore. Prices fell to $1,260.61 on Oct. 11, the lowest since July 11, on expectations an agreement would be reached. Gold for December climbed 0.4 percent to $1,273.30 an ounce on the Comex.

With the U.S.’s borrowing authority set to lapse Oct. 17, a deal to avert default and restore full government operations continues to elude politicians. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was negotiating with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell after talks between President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner broke down. Gold has dropped 24 percent this year as U.S. economic growth quickened.

“Over recent weeks, the price has been influenced by what’s been happening in the U.S around their budget and the shutdown,” said Alexandra Knight, an economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. “It’ll continue to create volatility.”

Gold is heading for the first annual loss since 2000 on expectations that the Fed will slow the pace of its $85 billion monthly bond purchases. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest bullion-backed exchange-traded product, fell to 890.98 metric tons on Oct. 11, the lowest level since February 2009.

Dolar ditetapkan untuk kenaikan mingguan di tengah optimisme kesepakatan utang

Reuters ( 11/10 ) - Dolar naik terhadap sekeranjang mata uang utama pada hari Jumat, menuju kenaikan mingguan pertama dalam lima tahun terakhir, seiring optimisme tumbuh bahwa Kongres A.S akan mencapai kesepakatan terhadap kesepakatan stop-gap untuk mencegah default A.S yang menghancurkan.

Presiden Barack Obama dan pemimpin Republik Kongres bergerak untuk mengakhiri kebuntuan fiskal mereka pada hari Jumat tetapi berjuang dengan rincian untuk reopening jangka pendek pemerintah federal dan peningkatan batas pinjaman A.S.

Dengan adanya kepastian bahwa kesepakatan akan menaikkan batas utang sampai batas waktu 17 Oktober mendatang, menurut analis, dolar akan tetap tertekan sementara mata uang safe haven seperti yen akan menarik. Kekhawatiran tentang anggaran A.S dan krisis utang telah mendorong indeks dolar ke delapan bulan terendah pada Kamis lalu.

Indeks dolar, yang melacak greenback terhadap sekeranjang enam mata uang utama, naik 0,1 persen menjadi 80,474. Hal tersebut membuat indeks berada pada kecepatan untuk kenaikan sebesar 0,4 persen minggu ini, merupakan kenaikan mingguan pertama sejak awal bulan September lalu.

Opsi para investor adalah membatasi taruhan bahwa keuntungan dari dolar yang lebih kuat, dengan risiko pembalikan satu minggu euro / dollar menunjukkan opsi bagi para investor mencari perlindungan terkecil terhadap depresiasi euro sejak Januari lalu. Pembalikan risiko dalam satu tahun menunjukkan permintaan untuk euro menempatkannya, hak untuk menjual euro di masa mendatang, di terkecil sejak bulan April lalu.

Dolar naik 0,4 persen menjadi 98,52 yen, setelah mencapai puncak sesi di level 98,57 yen, menurut data Reuters, merupakan level tertinggi sejak 1 Oktober lalu. Dukungan terlihat di moving average dalam 200 hari dari 96,87 yen.

Euro naik 0,1 persen menjadi $ 1,3533.

Dolar naik 1,1 persen terhadap yen selama seminggu terakhir, minggu terbaik sejak 23 Agustus yang lalu, sementara euro turun 0,2 persen terhadap dolar, pekan terburuk sejak September 6 lalu.

Yield tertinggi, naiknya pertumbuhan mata uang yang sensitif. Dolar Selandia Baru naik 0,5 persen menjadi $ 0,8313. Dolar Australia naik 0,1 persen menjadi $ 0,9459.

Kebuntuan fiskal telah mengambil sorotan dari Federal Reserve pada saat ini. Tetapi harapan telah tumbuh bahwa hal tersebut akan mengevaluasi dampak dari penutupan pemerintah, sekarang pada hari ke-11, sebelum The Fed harus kembali menskala pembelian sebesar $ 85 miliar per bulan dari Treasuries dan obligasi hipotek.

Sebuah survei menunjukkan pada hari Jumat bahwa sentimen konsumen A.S memburuk pada bulan Oktober ini menjadi yang terlemah dalam sembilan bulan pertama seiring penutupan pemerintah federal dalam 17 tahun merusak pandangan Amerika terhadap perekonomian. Dolar menunjukkan sedikit reaksi terhadap data, mengingat keprihatinan besar seputar negosiasi di Washington.

' Kalau itu belum , maka akan hampir mustahil bagi Fed untuk memulai pemangkasan sebelum akhir tahun jika hanya perpanjangan utang enam minggu disepakati, ' kata Tom Levinson, FX strategist ING.

Dia mengatakan bahwa indeks dolar akan berjuang untuk mempertahankan reli ke 81.00, level tersebut dicapai sebelum bank sentral A.S mengejutkan pasar pada tanggal 18 September mendatang dengan memilih untuk tidak mulai memangkas pembelian obligasi. (frk)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/11/us-markets-forex-idUSBRE9900VQ20131011
 

Dollar set for weekly gain amid optimism on debt deal

Reuters (11/10) - The dollar rose against a basket of major currencies on Friday, heading for its first weekly gain in five, as optimism grew that the U.S. Congress will reach agreement on a stop-gap deal to avert a devastating U.S. default.

President Barack Obama and congressional Republican leaders moved to end their fiscal impasse on Friday but struggled with the details for a short-term reopening of the federal government and an increase in the U.S. borrowing limit.

With no certainty that a deal will be struck to raise the limit by the October 17 deadline, analysts said, the dollar will remain pressured while safe-haven currencies such as the yen will be attractive. Worries about the U.S. budget and debt crisis had driven the dollar index to an eight-month low last Thursday.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.1 percent to 80.474. It is on pace for a gain of 0.4 percent this week, the first weekly rise since early September.

Options investors are curbing bets that profit from a stronger dollar, with one-week euro/dollar risk reversals showing options investors sought the smallest protection against the euro's depreciation since January. One-year risk reversals show demand for euro puts, the right to sell the euro at a future date, at its smallest since April.

The dollar rose 0.4 percent to 98.52 yen, having hit a session peak of 98.57 yen, according to Reuters data, the highest since October 1. Support is seen at the 200-day moving average of 96.87 yen.

The euro rose 0.1 percent to $1.3533.

The dollar rose 1.1 percent against the yen for the week, its best week since August 23, while the euro slid 0.2 percent against the dollar, its worst week since September 6.

High-yielding, growth-sensitive currencies rose. The New Zealand dollar gained 0.5 percent to $0.8313. The Australian dollar added 0.1 percent to $0.9459.

The fiscal impasse has taken the spotlight off the Federal Reserve for now. But expectations are growing that it will have to evaluate the impact of the government shutdown, now in its 11th day, before the Fed has to scale back its buying of $85 billion per month of Treasuries and mortgage bonds.

A survey showed Friday that U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated in October to its weakest in nine months as the first federal government shutdown in 17 years undermined Americans' outlook on the economy. The dollar showed little reaction to the data, given the bigger concerns surrounding negotiations in Washington.

'If it was not already, it will be near impossible for the Fed to commence tapering before year-end if only a six-week debt extension is agreed,' said Tom Levinson, FX strategist at ING, in a note to clients.

He said the dollar index would struggle to sustain a rally to 81.00, the level it reached before the U.S. central bank surprised markets on September 18 by opting not to start trimming its bond buying.



http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/11/us-markets-forex-idUSBRE9900VQ20131011