Oil Futures Settle at a Nearly Three Week High

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Oil futures settled at their highest level in almost three weeks on Monday, buoyed by expectations for output declines and signs of stronger demand for crude.

Prices also got a boost after a U.S. government report showed that domestic shale-oil production was forecast to fall by 114,000 barrels a day next month.

May WTI crude rose 64 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $40.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the highest settlement since March 22.

Source: MarketWatch

Gold Advances to Highest in Three Weeks on Dollar, Rate Outlook

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Gold futures rose to the highest in almost three weeks on declines in the dollar and speculation that the Federal Reserve will be slow to boost interest rates.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell to the lowest since June. Traders are pricing the odds of a rate increase by December at 48 percent, down from 58 percent a week ago. Last week, minutes of last month’s Fed meeting showed several central bank officials supported a “cautious approach” to raising rates, and that raising as soon as April would “signal a sense of urgency they did not think appropriate.”

Gold’s gains follow its best quarterly rally in three decades as turmoil in financial markets reduced bets that the Fed would tighten monetary policy this year, increasing demand for bullion as a store of value. Lower rates are a boon for gold, which becomes more competitive against interest-bearing assets. The metal’s rally spurred a 93 percent climb this year for a gauge of 14 gold producers tracked by Bloomberg Intelligence.

Gold futures for June delivery gained 1.1 percent to settle at $1,258 an ounce at 1:46 p.m. on the Comex in New York, after touching $1,260.90 the highest since March 22. Prices last week climbed 1.7 percent, the most since March 4.

Source: Bloomberg

Hong Kong shares edge up, supported by China policy view (Riview)

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Hong Kong stocks edged up on Monday, aided by a bullish mainland market after China's March inflation came in lower than forecast and fanned optimism Beijing will keep monetary policy loose.

The Hang Seng index rose 0.4 percent, to 20,440.81, while the China Enterprises Index gained 1.2 percent, to 8,807.06 points.

China's annual March consumer price figure came out surprisingly unchanged from the previous month at 2.3 percent, while wholesale prices remained stubbornly in deflation, down 4.3 percent, although the pace of decline eased.

Most sectors rose in Hong Kong, with energy and raw material shares among the biggest gainers.

Shares of Prada SpA slumped 7.8 percent to 5-week lows as weak China sales hit profit.

Source: Reuters

U.S. Stocks Drop Before Alcoa Results as Dollar Falls, Oil Gains

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U.S. stocks fell, erasing gains as an advance in global equities faltered before the start of what is forecast to be the worst American earnings season since the financial crisis. The dollar tumbled to a nine-month low, boosting commodity prices.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed as much as 0.7 percent before turning negative in the final half hour of trading. Alcoa Inc. starts the reporting season after markets close, with S&P 500 profits forecast to fall 10 percent. Peruvian stocks climbed the most since 2008 after two market-friendly candidates made it to the second-round presidential vote. Asian and European shares rose earlier, and crude climbed above $40 a barrel. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index extended losses to the most since June.

Concern that global growth continues to slow even as central banks step up efforts to revitalize it has sapped equities of momentum heading into the first-quarter earnings season. Analysts are projecting profits for S&P 500 companies will contract 10 percent, compared with calls for flat earnings growth at the start of the year. European peers will also begin reporting this week, with profit at companies in Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index forecast to shrink in 2016, reversing earlier calls for earnings to improve.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.3 percent 4 p.m. in New York, after falling 1.2 percent last week in the steepest slide since February. Following a tumultuous start to the year that saw the index tumble as much as 11 percent by mid-February, U.S. equities are now almost unchanged on optimism that central bank support will be enough to support growth.

Source: Bloomberg

U.S. Stocks Fluctuate Before Alcoa Kicks Off Earnings Season

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U.S. stocks fluctuated, with investors bracing for the start of what’s forecast to be the biggest earnings slump since the financial crisis.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.2 percent to 2,052.30 at 12:08 p.m. in New York, trimming an advance of as much as 0.8 percent. The benchmark gauge posted a 1.2 percent decline last week, the steepest drop in two months. Signs of a pick-up in Chinese industrial demand fueled gains in raw-material producers on Monday, while financial shares, the worst performing group in the S&P 500 in 2016, also rose. Health-care companies weighed on the index.

Alcoa Inc. unofficially kicks off the reporting season after the close. As investors await fresh cues from corporate America, analysts are projecting first-quarter profits will contract 10 percent --  compared with calls for flat earnings growth at the start of the year -- including a 20 percent drop for banks. Still, for the first time in eight months, the pace at which they are cutting their estimates is slowing.

While S&P 500 companies have historically exceeded earnings forecasts, sales have fallen short of projections in the past two periods. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. are all scheduled to release results this week.

Source: Bloomberg