Oil Halts Decline as Investors Weigh Demand Against OPEC Supply

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Oil halted its slide after falling the most in six weeks as investors weighed rising demand against expanding OPEC production.

Futures climbed as much as 1.3 percent in New York after Monday’s 5.1 percent drop. Global demand is increasing while non-OPEC nations are supplying less, according to Abdalla Salem El-Badri, the secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The 12-member group sees output from other producers declining by 130,000 barrels a day next year as the U.S. shale boom sputters, according to its monthly report.

Oil has failed to sustain gains after advancing above $50 a barrel last week for the first time since July amid speculation the global market remains oversupplied. OPEC said it produced 31.57 million barrels a day last month, the most since 2012, as it predicted stronger demand for its crude next year.

West Texas Intermediate for November delivery rose as much as 62 cents to $47.72 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $47.52 at 12 p.m. Sydney time. The contract fell $2.53 to $47.10 on Monday. The volume of all futures traded was almost three times the 100-day average. Prices are down about 11 percent this year.

Brent for November settlement climbed as much as 64 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $50.50 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It decreased $2.79 to $49.86 on Monday. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $2.92 to WTI.

Source: Bloomberg

Aussie Halts Longest Rally Since 2009 Before China Trade Data

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The Australian dollar’s longest rally in more than six years faltered amid concern an economic slowdown in China will worsen.

The Aussie weakened against all 16 of its major peers before a report Tuesday that may show a further slump last month in imports into China, the South Pacific nation’s biggest trading partner. The currency had surged in the previous nine days as traders pushed back expectations for an interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve and emerging markets recovered. Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Philip Lowe said Tuesday in Sydney that interest rates are less effective than they used to be.

Australia’s dollar declined 0.2 percent to 73.46 U.S. cents at 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo after appreciating by 5.4 percent in the previous nine days, the longest winning streak since March 2009.

Source: Bloomberg

NAB Business Confidence: Sentiment Recovers as Business Embraces Malcolm Turnbull

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Business confidence recovered in September from its worst reading in two years, according to the latest National Australia Bank survey, as industry captains welcomed Malcolm Turnbull's replacement of Tony Abbott as Prime Minister and global market upheaval subsided.

NAB said on Tuesday that its main business confidence index jumped from 1 point in August - its lowest level since mid-2013 - to 5 points in September. The results, gleaned from a survey of about 400 companies in the last week of September, suggests business support for Mr Turnbull, and relief at the end of leadership uncertainty within the Liberal Party.

However, the confidence index remains below its mid-year peak, and was not broad-based across all industries. Sentiment in mining, construction and finance fell, the last two perhaps because of perceptions that the residential housing boom is faltering.

"Business confidence recorded a partial recovery in September, increasing to 5 index points from 1," NAB economists, led by Alan Oster, wrote.

"It is not clear to what extent this reflects the change in leadership of the Liberal Party, as solid business conditions and some dissipation of financial market jitters may have also contributed to the result," they said.

The main business conditions index was flat at 9 points, with trading, profitability, forward orders, stocks and exports all down on their August levels. Employment, however, climbed from negative 1 in August to 4 points in September.

Within this, however, NAB noted sharper convergence between sectors and industries, with services continuing to perform much better than traditional industrial mainstays such as mining and manufacturing.

Levels of confidence, too, varied widely between different industries, with the improvement concentrated in transport and utilities, which were up 14 index points, and personal services, which surged 12 points.  Not surprisingly, given weak commodity prices and softening demand from China, mining companies were the least confident, registering a negative 14 index points.

NAB said the latest results suggested the lower Australian dollar had helped the "non-mining sector recovery" build momentum.

"This is particularly apparent in industries thought to be highly responsive to currency changes in the near-term, including personal and business services," the bank said.

It stuck to forecasts that the Reserve Bank of Australia would leave rates on hold at 2 per cent for the forseeable future, with no further monetary easing.

"Weak commodity prices and falling mining investment will remain a drag on economic activity and downside risks from offshore remain pronounced," the bank's economists said.

"However, we find it difficult to mount a case for further policy easing on purely domestic grounds and view market pricing for another 25 basis point cut over the coming six months as overly pessimistic."

Source: sydneymorningherald

Saham Asia di zona Merah Pasca Bursa Jepang Dibuka Kembali

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Saham Asia melemah, dengan indeks acuan regional ini turun dari level tujuh minggu tertinggi, seiring melemahnya saham Jepang setelah liburan dan investor menunggu data perdagangan China.

Indeks MSCI Asia Pacific turun 0,3 persen ke level 133,76 pada pukul 09:00 pagi waktu Tokyo pasca meraih penutupan tertinggi pada hari Senin sejak 20 Agustus. Indeks Standard & Poor 500 naik untuk hari keempat pada hari Senin menyusul spekulasi bank sentral global akan mempertahankan stimulus , setidaknya sampai akhir tahun ini, menjadi dasar untuk pemulihan dalam ekuitas. Seiring Data Selasa diperkirakan akan menunjukkan kontraksi yang sedang berlangsung di ekspor dan impor China, berpotensi menyalakan kembali kekhawatiran yang memicu volatilitas kuartal terakhir atau memicu taruhan pada pelonggaran lebih lanjut.

Indeks Topix Jepang turun 0,3 persen. Indeks Kospi Korea Selatan sedikit berubah. S & P / Indeks NZX 50 Selandia Baru naik 0,3 persen. Indeks Australia S & P / ASX 200 tergelincir 0,2 persen. Pasar di Cina dan Hong Kong belum memulai perdagangan saat berita dini dikeluarkan. (sdm)

Sumber: Bloomberg

Japan Topix Index Retreats From Six-Week High After Holiday

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Japanese stocks fell, with the Topix index retreating from a six-week high, as trading resumed after a holiday. Energy-related shares led losses after crude oil plunged.

The Topix dropped 0.5 percent to 1,507.81 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo, with three shares falling for every two that rose. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 0.6 percent to 18,335.29. Both gauges last week posted their biggest weekly gain since July. The yen traded at 120.04 per dollar after strengthening 0.2 percent on Monday.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed after the underlying gauge added 0.1 percent on Monday, rising for a fourth day amid reduced volume.

China is due to report trade data Tuesday that is forecast to show ongoing contraction in exports and imports, potentially reigniting the concerns that fueled last quarter’s volatility or stoking bets on further easing from the country’s central bank.

Source: Bloomberg