Oil Steadies After Refinery Data Spurs Biggest Gain in 8 Weeks

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Oil steadied after its biggest rally in eight weeks in New York as the focus shifted from rising U.S. refinery demand to the prospects for a U.S. interest rate gain this year.

Futures edged 0.3 percent higher after surging 6.3 percent yesterday. U.S. refiners boosted operating rates last week, according to an Energy Information Administration report Wednesday.  Odds the Federal Reserve will move on rates at their next meeting jumped to 50 percent from around 32 percent a week ago, based on futures prices, after officials signaled they’re prepared to tighten. Data showed American economic growth slowed last quarter.

Oil failed to sustain a gain above $50 a barrel earlier this month as the global glut showed little sign of easing any time soon. U.S. crude stockpiles are more than 100 million barrels above the five-year seasonal average, EIA data show. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries continues to pump above its quota and the International Energy Agency estimates the surplus will remain until at least the middle of 2016.

West Texas Intermediate for December delivery increased 12 cents to close at $46.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It’s the highest close since Oct. 16. The contract gained $2.74 on Wednesday, the most since Aug. 31. The volume of all futures traded was 3.2 percent above the 100-day average at 2:56 p.m.

Source: Bloomberg

Gold Ends at 3-week Low as Bets for December Rate Hike Grow

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Gold prices finished Thursday at their lowest levels in three weeks, a day after the Federal Open Market Committee left the door open to hiking interest rates at its December meeting.

Gold for December delivery dropped $28.80, or 2.5%, to settle at $1,147.30 an ounce on Comex. That was the lowest settlement since Oct. 8.

Prices had settled at a one-week high on Wednesday, but then turned lower in electronic trading after the Fed statement was released at the close of the central bank’s two-day meeting.

The market had been fairly convinced that the Fed would hold off on interest-rate hikes this year, but a more hawkish-than-expected statement took the market by surprise. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows investors are pricing in a 50% chance of a rate increase at the December meeting, scheduled for Dec. 15-16.

Gold has been a beneficiary of the Fed’s ultraloose monetary policy because commodities like gold don’t offer interest. The dollar also saw a sharp move higher late Wednesday, and that also can drag on dollar-denominated currencies like gold. The dollar hit its highest level against the euro in nearly three months Wednesday, but has since pulled back.

On Comex, other metals ended sharply lower. December silver futures dropped 74.3 cents, or 4.6%, to $15.55 an ounce, while December copper lost 4.2 cents, or 1.8%, to $2.321 a pound.

Source: MarketWatch

Japan Consumer Prices Fall 0.1% Before BOJ Policy Decision

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The Bank of Japan’s main inflation gauge dropped for a second consecutive month as the effects of low oil prices continue to take a toll, keeping Governor Haruhiko Kuroda distant from his 2 percent inflation target.

Consumer prices excluding fresh food declined 0.1 percent in September from a year earlier, after falling in August for the first time since April 2013, according to the statistics bureau. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for prices to decline 0.2 percent. Stripping out food and energy, prices rose 0.9 percent.

Analysts are split on whether the BOJ will bolster stimulus later Friday as board members examine the outlook for inflation and economic growth. Even though Japan’s core consumer prices are falling, Kuroda has said the inflation trend is improving, helped by a tight labor market and high corporate profits.

Household spending fell 0.4 percent in September while the jobless rate stood at 3.4 percent, according to separate reports by the statistics bureau.

While 16 of 36 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said they expect Kuroda and his board to bolster monetary policy.

Kuroda said Oct. 16 that the inflation trend is “surely improving” and cited a measure that excludes fresh food and energy, which rose 1.1 percent in August.

Source: Bloomberg

Rally in U.S. Shares Stalls Amid Earnings, Odds for Higher Rates

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A rally in U.S. shares stalled Thursday, after equities reached a two-month high, as investors weighed corporate earnings and prospects for higher interest rates this year.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was little changed at 2,089.40 at 4 p.m. in New York, near the highest level since Aug. 18, after briefly erasing losses in the final half hour. The gauge is up 8.8 percent in October, poised for its best month in four years, boosted by gains in commodity producers and technology shares.

Fed officials yesterday forecast moderate growth, and dropped a reference to global risks in a policy statement following a two-day meeting. They also referred to their “next meeting” on Dec. 15-16 as they discussed the timing for raising interest rates. Traders are now pricing in a 52 percent chance of liftoff in December, compared with as low as 30 percent last week. Prior to the Fed meeting, March was the first month showing at least even odds for a rate increase.

Data continues to be the Fed’s guide toward an eventual rate boost, and a report today showed the economy expanded at a slower pace in the third quarter as companies took advantage of gains in consumer and business spending to reduce bloated stockpiles. A separate measure showed contract signings to purchase previously owned homes unexpectedly fell in September by the most since the end of 2013, indicating the residential real estate market is cooling from its recent brisk pace.

Source : Bloomberg

European Stocks Are Little Changed Amid Earnings as Miners Slide

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European stocks fluctuated before closing little changed as investors parsed mixed earnings reports, with miners sliding as the increased possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate rise in December weighed on commodity prices.

Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays Plc fell more than 6 percent as earnings disappointed. A gauge tracking resource-related stocks including BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group slipped the most on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index as Liberum Capital downgraded the two companies to sell, and commodities declined as the Fed’s comments boosted the dollar. Danone, one of the world’s biggest producers of baby formula, climbed 1.5 percent after China said it would abandon its one-child policy.

The Stoxx 600 retreated less than 0.1 percent to 375.7 at the close of trading, after earlier falling as much as 0.6 percent and rising 0.4 percent. Europe’s benchmark measure has still climbed 8 percent in October, rebounding from a quarterly rout and heading for its best monthly rally since 2009 amid increased stimulus from China and hints of additional easing from the European Central Bank.

Source : Bloomberg

EUR/USD Quickly Approaches 1.0900 as Fed Leaves Door Open to 2015 Rate Hike

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EUR/USD crumbled to fresh 2-month lows, breaking below several support levels and quickly approaching 1.0900 as the Fed decided to leave policy unchanged but left the door open for a rate hike in December.

The Fed said it will determine if it is appropriate to raise rates “at its next meeting” after assessing progress toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. The Fed also removed from the statement comments regarding global developments potentially restraining economic activity and inflation.

EUR/USD lost around 170 pips after the release and bottomed out at 1.0897 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.0905, recording a 1.3% loss on Wednesday.

Source : FX Street

Gold Settles at 1-week High, then Falls after Fed News

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Gold futures climbed Wednesday to settle at their highest level in about a week, then turned lower in electronic trading after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but kept the door open for a rate hike at its next meeting.

Shortly after the price settlement for gold, the Fed’s policy-setting committee said it decided to keep interest rates close to zero, but also indicated in its statement that it would focus on its “next meeting” in mid-December on whether to raise rates.

Before the Fed news, gold for December delivery gained $10.30, or 0.9%, to settle at $1,176.10 an ounce on Comex. That was its highest finish since Oct. 20.

Shortly after the Fed news, however, prices fell to $1,162 an ounce in electronic trading. The stock market’s gains evaporated.

Gold has benefited from the Fed’s ultraloose monetary policy because commodities like gold don’t offer interest. Lower rates also keep moves in the U.S. dollar in check. A stronger dollar can be a drag on dollar-denominated commodities, making them more expensive for buyers using foreign currencies.

Other metals on Comex settled higher Wednesday before the Fed news, with December silver rallying 43 cents, or 2.7%, to $16.293 an ounce, January platinum tacking on $23.60, or 2.4%, to $1,012.80 and December palladium settling at $686.10 an ounce, or 1.1%. December copper ended barely higher at $2.363 a pound.

Source: MarketWatch

U.S. Equities Climb After Fed Amid Rally in Banks, Energy Shares

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U.S. stocks soared, after erasing earlier gains following the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting statement, as banks and energy companies led a rally.

Equities had advanced into the afternoon Fed statement, boosted by Apple Inc. following its better-than-expected results and by energy shares as oil surged the most in eight weeks. A signal that policy makers are still considering an interest-rate increase this year briefly undercut the gains before banks jumped on the prospects for stronger profits.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.2 percent to 2,090.29 at 4 p.m. in New York, after earlier wiping out a 0.9 percent gain. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 1.3 percent, while the Russell 2000 Index rallied 2.9 percent, its biggest gain this year.

The economy is still expanding at a “moderate” pace, Fed officials said as they left interest rates unchanged, and they will consider tightening policy at their next meeting in December without making a commitment to act this year. Even with a slower pace of recent job gains, labor market indicators show slack has diminished since early this year, the Federal Open Market Committee said.

The Fed removed a line from September’s statement saying that global economic and financial developments “may restrain economic activity somewhat,” saying only that the central bank is monitoring the international situation.

Source : Bloomberg

European Stocks Rise With Energy Shares Before Fed Rate Decision

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European stocks rose, buoyed by a rebound in energy companies, as investors awaited the outcome of a Federal Reserve meeting for indications of the trajectory of U.S. borrowing costs.

BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc added 1.5 percent or more as oil rose from a two-month low after industry data showed declines in U.S. fuel inventories and crude stockpiles at the nation’s biggest storage hub. Saipem SpA rallied 11 percent after Eni SpA agreed to sell a stake in the company to Fondo Strategico Italiano SpA. Eni rose 2.2 percent.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 1.1 percent at the close of trading. All 19 industry groups rose, with oil-and-gas companies leading gains and snapping a three-day decline. Europe’s benchmark measure has climbed 8.1 percent in October, rebounding from a quarterly rout and set for its best monthly gain since 2009.

Source : Bloomberg

PBOC Done Cutting Benchmark Rates, According to Economist Survey

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China’s central bank will refrain from further benchmark interest-rate cuts and economic growth will hold steady in the fourth quarter, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Growth in the final three months will be 6.9 percent from a year earlier, according to the median of analysts estimates in an Oct. 19-27 survey. That’s more optimistic than the 6.8 percent projected for the quarter in an earlier poll.

The People’s Bank of China will make one more cut to banks’ required reserve ratio this year but leave both the lending and deposit interest rates at current levels through to 2017, according to the survey. Policy makers lowered the benchmark rate last week for a sixth time in a year after third-quarter growth came in at the weakest rate since 2009.

“The PBOC may cut the RRR (required reserve ratio) one more time this year and increase central bank lending to make monetary policy transmission more efficient and reduce effective financing costs,” Bian Quanshui, a China economy analyst at China International Capital Corp. in Beijing, wrote in a note. “Lower real interest rates will help stabilize economic growth and prices.”

The central bank said late Friday it would cut benchmark interest rates, stepping up the battle against deflationary pressures. Policy makers also reduced the amount of deposits banks must hold as reserves, adding liquidity that’s been drained by increasing capital outflows since August’s yuan devaluation. A gauge of capital outflows compiled by Bloomberg surged to a record $194.3 billion in September.

The rate cut came just before this week’s gathering of China’s top leaders, who are gathering in Beijing to formulate the 13th five-year plan while confronting an era of sub-7 percent growth for the first time since Deng Xiaoping opened the nation to the outside world in the late 1970s. The world’s second-largest economy grew 7 percent in both of the first two quarters of this year, in line with Premier Li Keqiang’s goal, before the expansion slipped to 6.9 percent in the third quarter.

Some alternative readings suggest the growth pace is even slower. Bloomberg Intelligence economists Tom Orlik and Fielding Chen say "official numbers may be upward biased during downturns."

UBS Group AG chief China economist Wang Tao expects the PBOC will cut rates one more time this year, probably in December, and again in early 2016 to bring the lending rate to 3.85 percent and the one-year deposit rate to 1 percent.

“This would push real deposit rate into negative territory,” as has often happened in the past, Tao wrote in a report. That could “encourage consumption, support asset prices and anchor inflation expectations.”

Forecasters expect growth to decelerate to 6.5 percent in 2016 and to 6.3 percent the following year, the survey showed, down from an anticipated 6.9 percent for 2015.

“Policymakers are serious about defending the 7 percent growth target this year,” Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong, said in a recent note. He expects the central bank to make one more RRR cut this year while leaving the main rate unchanged.

Source: Bloomberg

Oil Ends 1.8% Lower on Planned Sale of U.S. Reserves

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Oil futures settled at a two-month low Tuesday after the U.S. government announced plans to sell millions of barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, as traders bet on a further weekly increase in crude supplies.

December West Texas Intermediate crude fell 78 cents, or 1.8%, to settle at $43.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the lowest settlement since Aug. 27. December Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange lost 73 cents, or 1.5%, to $46.81 a barrel.

The government had announced a “test drawdown and sale” of five million barrels from the SPR in March 2014, but the last significant release was in 2011, when the U.S. sold off 30 million barrels to offset lost production from Libya. The SPR has capacity of 713.5 million barrels, but currently holds about 695 million.

WTI oil prices have dropped for two straight weeks, dragging the prices of other energy products with them.

Traders will also be focusing on the Federal Reserve meeting, which ends Wednesday, for hints about the fate of interest rates.

Source: MarketWatch

Gold Little Changed as Traders Await Fed Decision on U.S. Rates

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Gold traders are waiting on the sidelines ahead of a meeting of U.S. policy makers that could give clues on when interest rates will rise.

Futures closed little change in New York, and aggregate trading was 35 percent below the 100-day average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. On Monday, about 93,000 contracts changed hands, the lowest in three weeks. Federal Reserve officials start a two-day meeting on Tuesday.

Investors have been building up positions for a rally amid speculation that the Fed will refrain from raising rates this year. Higher borrowing costs curb the appeal of gold because it doesn’t give returns like bonds or equities. Former Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in a CNN interview aired Sunday that policy makers will need to weigh the weakness in China and other emerging markets against the strength of the U.S. economy.

Gold futures for December delivery fell less than 0.1 percent to settle at $1,165.80 an ounce at 1:43 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Futures have gained 4.5 percent this month.

Traders put the probability that the Fed will raise rates at its meeting this week at 4 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The odds of increasing borrowing costs in December are 33 percent, the data show.

Silver futures fell on the Comex, while platinum and palladium declined on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Source: Bloomberg

U.S. Stocks Decline Before Fed Amid Earnings Reports, Economic Data

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U.S. stocks declined amid mixed earnings reports and data that renewed concern on the strength of the global economy as the Federal Reserve began a two-day monetary policy meeting.

A rally in equities has tapped the brakes as investors await the latest from the Fed. Policy makers kept interest rates near zero last month, opting to hold off for a better read on the impact of weaker growth in China and lackluster inflation. Central bankers in Europe and China last week signaled commitment to bolstering their economies, which helped the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index erase a loss for the year.

The S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent to 2,065.98 at 4 p.m. in New York, after briefly slipping below its average price during the past 200 days.

International Business Machines Corp. fell 4.4 percent to a five-year low. The company disclosed today that regulators are investigating its accounting treatment of certain transactions in the U.S., the U.K. and Ireland.

Some 43 S&P 500 companies report earnings today, with analysts projecting profits for index members dropped 6.1 percent in the third quarter. Of the companies that have released results this season, 74 percent have exceeded profit projections, while 57 percent missed sales estimates.

Source : Bloomberg

Europe Stocks Fall for a Second Day as Earnings Miss, Oil Drops

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European stocks fell for a second day as some disappointing earnings reports cast doubt on the strength of the euro-area economic recovery, amid weak commodity and oil prices.

Total SA and Royal Dutch Shell Plc slid at least 1.9 percent, contributing the most to a drop in energy stocks. Novartis AG pulled health-care shares down, falling 1.6 percent after reporting profit that missed estimates and agreeing to pay $390 million to settle claims that it paid kickbacks to some U.S. pharmacies. Anglo American Plc was among the biggest mining decliners, falling 5.7 percent. BASF SE dragged chemical shares lower, losing 4.7 percent after cutting its targets for sales and profit this year.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 1.1 percent to 371.88 at the close of trading. Shares yesterday snapped a two-day rally, falling from a two-month high, amid speculation about the strength of economies in Europe, Asia and the U.S.

Source: Bloomberg

U.S. Stocks Fluctuate Before Fed Amid Earnings, Economic Data

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U.S. stocks fluctuated amid mixed earnings reports and data that renewed concern on the strength of the global economy as the Federal Reserve begins a two-day monetary policy meeting.

A rally in equities has tapped the brakes as investors await the latest from the Fed. Policy makers kept interest rates near zero last month, opting to hold off for a better read on the impact of weaker growth in China and lackluster inflation. Central bankers in Europe and China last week signaled commitment to bolstering their economies, which helped the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index erase a loss for the year.

The S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent to 2,063 at 12:39 p.m. in New York, and earlier dropped near its average price during the past 200 days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 35.01 points, or 0.2 percent, to 17,588.04. The Nasdaq Composite Index also declined 0.2 percent.

Source : Bloomberg

Oil ends at 2-month low dogged by demand worries

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Oil prices ended in the red on Monday with lingering concerns over a global supply glut and weakening demand pushing prices to their lowest settlement in roughly two months.

Natural-gas prices meanwhile, dropped for a fourth trading day in a row, losing nearly 10% for the session to hold ground at their lowest level since 2012.

December West Texas Intermediate crude fell by 62 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $43.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The settlement was the lowest since Aug. 27, based on the most-active contracts, according to FactSet. December Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange shed 45 cents, or 0.9%, to $47.54 a barrel.

Excess supplies have been weighing on oil prices since the summer of 2014. Oil prices have dropped by more than half since then, but the market is watching for signs of lower output.

Source: MarketWatch

Gold Gains for First Time in Four Sessions as Dollar Weakens

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Gold snapped the longest slump in three weeks as the dollar weakened, boosting the appeal of the metal as an alternative investment.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell, ending the longest rally since January, as traders awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision on whether to raise interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. Policy makers meet this week, and traders put the odds of a rate rise by December at 36 percent. Higher rates curb the appeal of gold because it doesn’t offer yields or interest.

Gold is heading for its biggest monthly gain since January as signs of uneven U.S. growth and faltering expansions abroad spur speculation that the Fed will wait for more assurance that the economy can withstand tighter monetary policy. Bullion extended gains after a government report Monday showed purchases of new U.S. homes slumped in September to a 10-month low.

Gold futures for December delivery rose 0.3 percent to settle at $1,166.20 an ounce at 1:50 p.m. on the Comex in New York, ending three straight declines in the longest slump since Oct. 1. Trading on Monday was 38 percent below the 100-day average for this time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Silver futures for December delivery gained 0.5 percent to $15.905 an ounce on the Comex. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, palladium futures for December delivery dropped 1.4 percent to $683.90 an ounce, while platinum futures for January delivery slid 0.4 percent to $997.50 an ounce.

Source: Bloomberg

Asia Stocks Slip From Two-Month High as Investors Await Fed, BOJ

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Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index retreating from its highest in two months, as energy shares led losses and investors awaited policy decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan later in the week.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.1 percent to 136.31 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo after closing Monday at the highest since Aug. 18. The decisions on monetary policy come after China cut its lending rate last week and European officials signaled a willingness to add stimulus to combat flagging growth. The odds the Fed will raise rates at the end of their two-day policy meeting on Wednesday are slim, with traders seeing a 6 percent chance. Economists are divided on whether the BOJ will supplement already unprecedented easing on Friday.

Japan’s Topix index slipped 0.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was little changed. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index added 0.5 percent. Markets in China and Hong Kong have yet to start trading.

The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.5 percent on Monday after the central bank cut interest rates for a sixth time in a year as the nation’s leaders gather this week to map out a five-year plan for the world’s second-largest economy. The Shanghai gauge has rebounded 17 percent from this year’s low on Aug. 26 as the government took measures to stabilize the stock market after a $5 trillion rout and policy makers introduced more measures to boost growth amid the slowest economic expansion in a quarter of a century.

Source: Bloomberg

Japanese Stocks Fluctuate Ahead of Fed, BOJ Meetings, Earnings

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Japanese stocks swung between gains and losses as investors awaited a rush of company earnings and policy updates from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan later this week. Steelmakers fell and retailers led gains.

The Topix index slipped 0.1 percent to 1,558.01 as of 9:04 a.m. in Tokyo, swinging from a gain of less than 0.1 percent. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average was little changed at 18,940.20. The yen traded at 120.93 per dollar, strengthening for a second day.

The Fed announces its rate decision on Wednesday, with futures traders pricing in just a 6 percent possibility of an increase. Expectation are higher for action in Japan when the BOJ meets on Friday, with 16 of 36 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecasting the central bank will bolster monetary policy.

Friday also marks the busiest day of the Japanese earnings season, with more than 300 companies expected to file results, including NTT Docomo Inc. and Japan Airlines Co. Companies reporting Tuesday after the close include robot-maker Fanuc Corp. and camera-maker Canon Inc.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed after the underlying gauge slipped 0.2 percent on Monday following four weeks of gains. The index is on track for its best month since 2011 after surging 11 percent from its August low.

Source:Bloomberg

U.S. Shares Slip Before Batch of Earnings, Fed Policy Meeting

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A rally in U.S. shares stalled Monday, as investors assessed recent gains before the latest batch of earnings and a Federal Reserve meeting, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipping from a nine-week high.

Technology and energy, two industries that have driven much of the benchmark’s gains as it heads toward its best month in four years, retreated today. Apple Inc. lost 3.2 percent to weigh on tech, as supplier Dialog Semiconductor Plc’s sales and outlook missed analysts’ estimates. Apple is Dialog’s biggest customer. Chevron Corp. fell 2.7 percent with crude oil sinking to a two-month low.

The S&P 500 declined 0.2 percent to 2,071.03 at 4 p.m. in New York, after last week erasing its losses for the year.

Pfizer Inc., Ford Motor Co. and Apple Inc. are among more than 160 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings this week. Analysts project profits at the index’s members dropped 6.1 percent in the third quarter, with energy and materials companies showing the steepest decline.

Two months after the first correction since 2011 broke a yearlong calm in U.S. equities, the S&P 500 is on the march again, bringing its gain from its August low to 11 percent, and within 3 percent of its all-time high set in May. Microsoft Corp., Google parent Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. surged on Friday, adding more than $80 billion in combined market value on strong earnings reports.

Source : Bloomberg

Oil Holds Losses Near 4-Week Low as Drop in U.S. Drilling Slows

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Oil held losses near the lowest level in almost four weeks as the pace of U.S. drill rig reductions slowed in the world’s biggest crude consumer.

Futures were little changed in New York after dropping 1.7 percent on Friday. The number of active machines targeting oil declined by 1 to 594, according to data from Baker Hughes Inc. Oil prices may climb to $60 a barrel by the end of next year, Ali Al Mansoori, the chairman of Abu Dhabi’s Department of Economic Development, said in an interview.

West Texas Intermediate for December delivery was at $44.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 1 cent, at 10:09 a.m. Sydney time. The contract slid 78 cents to $44.60 on Friday, the lowest close since Sept. 28. The volume of all futures traded was about 66 percent below the 100-day average. Prices have decreased 16 percent this year.

Brent for December settlement was 3 cents lower at $47.96 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices fell 4.9 percent last week. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $3.33 to WTI.

Source: Bloomberg

Gold Holds Decline as U.S. Rate Bets Weighed With Global Growth

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Gold held declines after a three-day drop as investors weighed the prospect for higher U.S. borrowing costs against a dimming global economic outlook before a Federal Reserve meeting this week.

Bullion for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.2 percent to $1,162.25 an ounce and was at $1,163.10 at 8:44 a.m. in Singapore, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal sank to $1,159.05 on Friday, the lowest price since Oct. 13, as the dollar jumped.

Gold investors are tracking the Fed to see when borrowing costs will start to rise for the first time since 2006, with policy makers beginning a two-day meeting in Washington on Tuesday. While U.S. central bankers are weighing growth, inflation and labor-market data to decide whether to tighten policy, China’s central bank cut rates last week and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled that he will bolster stimulus. The dollar posted the biggest weekly gain since May last week.

Source: Bloomberg

Asian Stocks Extend Two-Month High as China Cuts Interest Rates

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Asian stocks rose after China’s central bank cut its benchmark lending rate, stepping up efforts to cushion a deepening economic slowdown.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3 percent to 136.15 as of 9 a.m. in Tokyo after closing Friday at the highest since Aug. 19. The gauge climbed 9.7 percent this month through the end of last week as investors pushed back expectations for the first U.S. interest-rate increase and central banks signaled further measures will be enacted to stave off weak economic growth. Late on Friday, China said it would cut rates for the sixth time in a year, and lowered the amount of deposits banks must hold as reserves.

Japan’s Topix index gained 1.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.3 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.4 percent. New Zealand markets are closed for a holiday, while markets in Hong Kong and China have yet to open.

China’s one-year lending rate was cut to 4.35 percent from 4.6 percent, the People’s Bank of China said on its website on Friday, while the one-year deposit rate will fall to 1.5 percent from 1.75 percent. Reserve requirements for all banks were lowered by 50 basis points, with an extra 50 basis point reduction for some institutions.

China’s Communist Party meets Monday to map out a blueprint for 2016-2020 in an economy confronting an era of sub-7 percent growth for the first time since Deng Xiaoping opened the nation to the outside world in the late 1970s.

The Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve decide on monetary policy this week as central banks worldwide seek to revive slowing global growth and lackluster inflation. Traders see a 6 percent chance of a Fed rate increase this week, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.1 percent. The S&P 500 climbed 1.1 percent on Friday to cap a fourth weekly gain amid better-than-estimated earnings.

Source: Bloomberg

Japanese Stocks Rise After China Rate Cut, Ahead of BOJ Meeting

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Japanese stocks rose after China cut interest rates on Friday and amid speculation the Bank of Japan will also boost stimulus this week.

The Topix index added 1.2 percent to 1,566.27 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, building on last week’s gains of 2.8 percent. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 1.1 percent to 19,024.59, rising above 19,000 for the first time in two months. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index erased its loss for the year on Friday after policy makers in China cut interest rates and lenders’ reserve requirements, while their counterparts in Europe last week signaled they will bolster stimulus if needed.

China’s announcement to cut benchmark interest rates on Friday came a day after the ECB said it will consider adding to its bond-buying program this year. The Bank of Japan meets on Friday, with 15 of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg from Sept. 29-Oct. 2 expecting the central bank to expand monetary stimulus.

E-mini futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.2 percent after the underlying gauge rose 1.1 percent on Friday. Google parent Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp. added more than $80 billion in market value after earnings topped estimates.

Source: Bloomberg

Euro Drops as Draghi Gives Investors the QE Hints They Wanted

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The euro tumbled to a two-month low after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi gave a crowd-pleasing performance at his policy address in Malta, leaving investors in little doubt he’s ready to deploy more monetary stimulus to boost the flagging economy.

The shared currency fell versus all of its 16 major counterparts after Draghi said officials will reexamine the scope of their quantitative-easing plan in December. The bond purchases, originally due to end next September, will continue until the ECB sees a sustained increase in the inflation outlook, he told reporters. Policy makers also discussed a further cut to the bank’s negative deposit rate, he said.

The euro’s decline vindicated options traders who had added to wagers for the shared currency to reverse its recent rally against the dollar, and who boosted them even more after Draghi’s remarks.

The shared currency dropped as much as 2 percent to $1.1109, the lowest level since Aug. 18, and was at $1.1114 as of 3:05 p.m. New York time. It slipped 1.3 percent to 134.17 yen. Stimulus tends to weaken a currency by expanding the monetary base.

Source: Bloomberg

Crude Oil Gains for 2nd Time in Nine Days as Gasoline Advances

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Oil rose for the second time in nine days after trading below $45 a barrel for a second day. Gasoline gained more than crude, widening refinery profit margins.

West Texas Intermediate futures erased earlier gains as the dollar strengthened before rallying to settle with an 18-cent gain. The gasoline crack spread, a measure of the profit from processing a barrel of oil into the fuel, advanced to above $9 a barrel after sinking to $6.54 in intraday trading Tuesday.

Oil failed to sustain a gain above $50 a barrel earlier this month amid signs the market surplus will persist. U.S. inventories remain more than 100 million barrels above the five-year seasonal average as the country’s refinery utilization rate hovers near the lowest since January. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries continues to pump above its quota while Iran prepares to ramp up output once sanctions end.

WTI for December delivery gained 18 cents to settle at $45.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The volume of all futures traded was 27 percent below the 100-day average.

Brent for December settlement increased 23 cents to $48.08 at 2:42 p.m. New York time on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark traded at a premium of $2.70 to WTI.

Source: Bloomberg

Asian Stocks Set to Track Draghi Surge While Nasdaq Futures Jump

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The October stock rally is back, thanks to some handy comments on stimulus from Mario Draghi and better-than-expected earnings from Google Inc. and Amazon. com Inc.

Asian index futures signaled gains from Japan to Hong Kong, and Australian equities jumped Friday after Draghi said the European Central Bank will consider bolstering its bond-buying program before the end of 2015, sparking a surge in European and U.S. stocks. Nasdaq 100 Index futures were about 1.6 percent above the gauge’s closing level after shares of Google parent Alphabet Inc. and Amazon jumped more than 10 percent in extended U.S. trading. The euro was at a two-month low, while oil headed for a weekly loss.

The ECB is the latest central bank to switch to a more dovish tone on stimulus, with its willingness to bolster support for the euro-area economy a shot in the arm for risk assets that have benefited from the wave of global monetary easing. With banks and retailers posting more mixed results this season, the results from Google and Amazon, which reported a surprise profit, bolstered optimism over the outlook for U.S. equities. Stocks in New York returned Thursday to their trading range from before China’s shock yuan devaluation in August. A gauge of Japanese manufacturing is due Friday, with Chinese house prices.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 1.8 percent by 10:13 a.m. in Sydney, rising for a third day to be on track for a 1.7 percent advance in the week. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index, the first major stock gauge to start trading each day in the Asian region rose for an 11th day in its longest rally since November.

Futures on the Nasdaq 100 traded at 4,576.75, compared with 4,492.50 at 4 p.m. Thursday in New York and the index’s closing level of 4,503.22. Shares of Alphabet, the new holding company that encompasses Google, soared as much as 13 percent after hours as an increase in advertising sales and restrained spending underpinned the third-quarter results. Amazon reported a 17 cents-a-share profit, amid analysts’ expectations for a loss of 13 cents.

Source: Bloomberg

Bad Memories Fading in S&P 500 After 10% Rally From August Low

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Two months after the first correction since 2011 broke a yearlong calm in U.S. equities, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is jumping again, climbing as much as 1.8 percent Thursday to bring its gain from its lowest close in August to 10 percent. The benchmark gauge for American equities now sits at a level last seen on Aug. 19 and is fewer than 7 points below its Dec. 31, 2014 closing price, making its performance year-to-date just about flat.

Slicing it differently: U.S shares have climbed back into the trading range they tumbled out of in August during a six-day selloff that wiped out $2 trillion in market value. Half of the S&P 500’s 10 major groups now are trading above their Aug. 19 closing levels, with energy stocks and consumer staples leading. While few investors are ready to sound the all clear, some see signs the worst is behind them, citing the market’s ability to go up even as corporate earnings fall flat.

The S&P 500 surged 1.7 percent to 2,052.58 at 4 p.m. in New York, sparked by a batch of better-than-estimated earnings from companies including McDonald’s Corp. and EBay Inc., bolstering optimism on the health of corporate America. Prospects that Europe will move to boost its economy provided a further lift as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers will investigate fresh stimulus measures.

The rally is also an affirmation of sorts for Wall Street stock forecasters who clung to optimistic outlooks even as the S&P 500 slid more than 11 percent to 1,867.61 between Aug. 17 and Aug. 25. Getting to the median estimate of 21 strategists tracked by Bloomberg of 2,150 would’ve taken a 15 percent rally from August’s lows. Today it requires less than 5 percent.

Source: Bloomberg

U.S. Stocks Rally Amid Corporate Earnings, Stimulus Speculation

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U.S. stocks rallied, heading toward their first gain in three days after a batch of better-than-estimated earnings from companies including McDonald’s Corp. and EBay Inc. boosted optimism on the health of corporate America.

Equities got a further lift from prospects Europe will move to bolster its economy. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said today policy makers will investigate fresh stimulus measures to thwart downside risks to the growth and inflation outlooks.

McDonald’s jumped the most in seven years and EBay headed for its biggest gain since 2012. Dow Chemical Co. advanced 5 percent after its earnings topped forecasts, and Texas Instruments added 10 percent after better-than-estimated results. American Express Co. lost 5.5 percent after results missed analysts’ forecasts. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. fell another 14 percent after tumbling 19 percent yesterday.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.7 percent to 2,052.22 at 12:35 p.m. in New York, rallying above its average price during the past 100 days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 300.34 points, or 1.8 percent, to 17,468.95, while the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 1.7 percent.

Source: Bloomberg

Dollar retreats from 9-day high vs. yen as investors look to ECB

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The dollar moved lower Wednesday ahead of a hotly anticipated meeting of European Central Bank policy makers after hitting a nine-day high against the Japanese yen early in the session.

The buck traded at ¥119.91 late Wednesday in New York, little changed from its late-Tuesday level. Early in Wednesday’s session, the dollar traded as high as ¥120.10, its highest level since Oct. 12.

The euro traded at $1.1342 late Wednesday, little-changed from late Tuesday. The British pound edged lower to $1.5419, from $1.5445.

Investors are hoping ECB President Mario Draghi will provide more concrete details about the central bank’s plan to expand its quantitative easing measures – something he hinted at after the ECB’s September meeting, and during a speech before the European Parliament.

Some believe that investors are expecting too much from Draghi.

The ICE U.S. Dollar index a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.1% to 95.0480.

Source: MarketWatch

Crude Oil Declines as U.S. Inventories Grow Most in Six Months

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Oil slid after a government report showed U.S. crude inventories grew by the most in six months.

West Texas Intermediate futures for December delivery ended at the lowest settlement in almost three weeks. Inventories expanded in the world’s biggest oil consumer by 8.03 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said. A Bloomberg survey forecast a gain of 3.75 million. Refineries processed more crude for the first time in five weeks.

Oil failed to sustain a gain above $50 a barrel earlier this month amid signs the market surplus will persist as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries continues to pump above its target. U.S. stockpiles remain more than 100 million barrels higher than the five-year seasonal average even as output falls and drilling rigs are idled.

December WTI declined $1.09, or 2.4 percent, to $45.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement for front-month futures since Oct. 1.

Source: Bloomberg

Asian Futures Tip Return to Losses With Oil Near Three-Week Low

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Most Asian index futures signaled a return to losses for the region’s stocks, with crude oil near an almost three-week low amid concerns over a global glut and after drugmakers drove declines in U.S. equities.

Futures on stock gauges from Japan to South Korea dropped after speculation over the outlook for Japanese stimulus fueled gains in the regional benchmark on Wednesday. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures rose after a short-seller takedown of Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. roiled health-care stocks, dragging the index lower last session. Anxiety over global demand is hobbling commodities, with U.S. oil below $46 a barrel and gold holding losses following its steepest slump this month.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.3 percent by 10:05 a.m. in Sydney, dropping for the second time this week, while New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index, the first major gauge to start trading each day in the Asia-Pacific region, was up 0.1 percent.

Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average were bid for 18,450 in the Osaka pre-market, down from 18,540 at their close Wednesday. Yen-denominated contracts rose 0.1 percent in Chicago, after gaining 1.2 percent in the previous session. Japan’s currency, which typically moves at odds with local shares, was little changed for a second day, at 119.90 per dollar. Futures on the Kospi index in Seoul dropped 0.2 percent.

Source: Bloomberg

Saham AS Turun pada Valeant seiring Minyak dan Emas Pimpin Gejolak di SDA

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Sebuah short-seller yang diambil dari Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc menggolakan sektor kesehatan, mengirim saham AS untuk kerugian hari kedua di tengah bervariasinya hasil perusahaan. Tanda-tanda pemulihan dari perlambatan pertumbuhan global membantu mendorong minyak ke level terendah dalam tiga minggu.

Indeks Standard & Poor 500 mengakhiri sesi volatile mereka dengan penurunan terbesar dalam seminggu. Valeant menetapkan sektor kesehatan, jatuh sebanyak 40 persen pada laporan dari Citron Research, hanya memotong setengah kekalahan setelah miliarder William Ackman menambahkan sahamnya di perusahaan. Saga ini dibayangi batu tulis besar positif dari laba blue-chip. Minyak mentah di New York jatuh ke level terendah dalam tiga pekan dan emas tergelincir ke level terendah bulan ini.

Ekuitas telah berjuang minggu ini untuk memperpanjang rally yang menambahkan lebih dari $ 4 triliun untuk harga saham global sejak akhir September. Produsen komoditas mengalami reli itu, tapi sektor sumber daya alam jatuh hari ini setelah penurunan impor Jepang menambahkan tanda-tanda bahwa permintaan dari ekonomi utama dalam kelesuan. Gejolak di Valeant menghidupkan kembali penjualan di sektor biotek yang merupakan salah satu  sektor dengan performance terbaik di pasar banteng.

Indeks Standard & Poor 500 turun 0,6 persen pada pukul 4 sore waktu New York, menghentikan reli Oktober. Indeks telah rebound hampir 9 persen dari level terendah musim panas sebelum penurunan dua hari. (sdm)

sumber: Bloomberg

S&P 500 Fluctuates Amid Mixed Earnings Results, Biotechs Decline

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The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fluctuated amid mixed corporate earnings results, and as a plunge in Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. sparked a second day of selling in biotechnology shares.

Valeant dropped 27 percent after a critical research report. General Motors Co. climbed 6.3 percent after posting a better-than-estimated profit. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. and EMC Corp lost more than 5 percent after their profits were short of estimates. KLA-Tencor Corp. jumped 23 percent after Lam Research Corp. agreed to acquire the company for $10.6 billion, while SanDisk Corp. added 2.7 percent after its deal to be bought by Western Digital Corp. 

The S&P 500 gained 0.2 percent to 2,033.93 at 12:27 p.m. in New York, after rising as much as 0.4 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 77.53 points, or 0.5 percent, to 17,294.64, as Travelers Cos. and United Technologies Corp. rallied for a second day, joined by Boeing Co. after it raised its profit forecast. The Nasdaq Composite Index was little changed as biotechnology shares retreated for a second day.

The S&P 500 is making little progress for a third session after reaching a two-month high. Equities have been recovering from a summer selloff and the benchmark’s first correction in four years, which was fed by anxiety over China’s slowdown and confusion on the Federal Reserve’s intentions toward interest rates. The S&P 500 is up 5.9 percent this month, rebounding from its worst quarter since 2011.

Investors are looking to corporate America for clues on the strength of the economy as the Federal Reserve considers raising interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. The probability of a Fed rate increase this year is about 34 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. March is the first month for which traders price in at least even odds of a boost.

Source: Bloomberg.

Dollar Near Three-Month Low as Fed Rate Increase View Recedes

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The dollar stayed near its lowest in more than three months as a slew of weak data further scaled back market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year.

The greenback fell to its weakest in seven weeks versus the euro on Wednesday and declined for a third day against the yen as disappointing economic reports, including U.S. retail sales and Chinese inflation, highlighted the risks to global growth that kept the Fed from raising rates last month.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was at 1,183.85 as of 8:57 a.m. in Tokyo from 1,183.45 in New York, where it closed at the weakest since June 30. The greenback was unchanged at $1.1474 against the euro after slumping 0.8 percent on Wednesday. The dollar was little changed at 118.84 yen following a 0.8 percent loss on Wednesday.

Source: Bloomberg

Emas Menguat ke 3 Bulan Tertinggi Karena Inflasi Ebb Picu Spekulasi The Fed

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Emas menguat ke level tertinggi dalam lebih dari tiga bulan sebagai tanda-tanda lebih lanjut dari meredanya inflasi global melemahkan kasus bagi Federal Reserve untuk menaikkan suku bunga AS.

Data inflasi konsumen China moderat, dan harga produsen memperpanjang rekor penurunan, menurut data pemerintah hari ini. Di AS, harga grosir meluncur pada bulan September yang terbesar sejak awal tahun ini, sementara penjualan ritel naik kurang dari perkiraan ekonom.

Emas telah naik lebih dari 5% dalam bulan ini, berada di jalur untuk kenaikan terbesar sejak Januari, sebagai bukti melemahnya perekonomian meningkatkan spekulasi bahwa The Fed akan menunda pengetatan kebijakan moneter tahun ini. Suku bunga yang lebih tinggi menekan daya tarik emas karena tidak membayar bunga.

Emas berjangka untuk pengiriman Desember naik 0,9% ke level $ 1,175.70 per ons pada pukul 10:31 pagi di Comex New York, setelah menyentuh $ 1,178.70, level tertinggi sejak 30 Juni. Logam menuju keuntungan beruntun keempat.

Logam diperdagangkan di atas 200-hari pergerakan rata-rata, saat ini berada di $ 1,176.03, untuk pertama kalinya sejak bulan Mei.(frk)

Sumber: Bloomberg

Australian Jobs Unexpectedly Fall in September, Aussie Drops

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Australian employers unexpectedly cut jobs in September, signaling record-low interest rates are yet to put the economy on a sustainable footing and offset a slump in mining investment.

Employment fell 5,100 from August compared with a median forecast of a 9,600 increase.

The jobless rate held at 6.2 percent, matching the median forecast.

Full-time jobs fell 13,900; part-time employment rose by 8,900

The participation rate, a measure of the labor force as a proportion of the population, fell to 64.9 percent from 65 percent in August and compared with a median forecast of 65 percent

The central bank cut its benchmark rate to a record-low 2 percent in May but investment by non-mining firms has so far failed to pick up leaving housing construction as one of the few bright spots in the economy.

“The labor market’s resilience masks weak fundamental trends, which are likely to weigh on domestic demand in future,” Konstantinos Venetis, an economist at Lombard Street Research, said in a research note ahead of the release. “The RBA’s task is only going to get harder from here. Domestic and external macro headwinds are set to intensify, skewing the risks for real GDP growth to the downside.”

The Australian dollar fell and traded at 73.11 U.S. cents at 11:34 a.m. in Sydney, from 73.40 cents before the data was released.

Source: Bloomberg

Most Asian Stocks Fall as Stronger Yen Weighs on Japanese Shares

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Most Asian stocks dropped, tracking declines in U.S. shares, as a stronger yen dragged down Japanese equities.

About two shares fell for each that rose on the dollar-denominated MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which added 0.2 percent to 131.73 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix index slid 0.5 percent after the yen gained 0.8 percent against the dollar on Wednesday as traders pared back bets on a U.S. interest-rate increase this year. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.5 percent as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. predicted earnings will decline next year and quarterly results from JPMorgan Chase & Co. disappointed. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped for the first time in six days on Wednesday after data showed Chinese factory-gate prices matched their biggest slump since the global financial crisis.

South Korea’s Kospi index slipped 0.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.2 percent. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index lost 0.1 percent. Markets in China and Hong Kong have yet to start trading.

Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index gained 1 percent in most recent trading, while contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland shares traded in Hong Kong added 0.2 percent, as did those on the benchmark Hang Seng Index.

E-mini futures on the S&P 500 gained 0.2 percent after the underlying gauge posted its first back-to-back declines in more than two weeks.

Bets on the Federal Reserve boosting borrowing costs at its October meeting slid to just 4 percent and odds of an increase before the end of the year are now 27 percent.

Source: Bloomberg

Japanese Stocks Fall for Third Day as Yen Rises Against Dollar

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Japanese stocks fell for a third day after the dollar continued to tumble against the yen yen as investors became more certain the Federal Reserve will hold off on raising U.S. interest rates. Electrical appliance makers and shippers led losses.

The Topix index dropped 0.4 percent to 1,465.28 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, with three shares falling for every two that rose. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 0.6 percent to 17,783.02. The yen traded near a seven-week high of at 118.72 per dollar after strengthening for the past three days, reducing the outlook for overseas earnings by Japanese exporters.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.2 percent after the underlying gauge fell 0.5 percent on Wednesday, marking its first back-to-back declines in more than two weeks. Investors are anxious about corporate profits as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. predicted earnings will decline next year and quarterly results from JPMorgan Chase & Co. disappointed.

The odds that a U.S. rate increase will be delayed until at least 2016 climbed to the highest this year. Traders’ bets that the Fed will lift its benchmark by year-end have dropped to less than a 30 percent chance, and aren’t much higher for January. For March, the probability has tumbled to about 49 percent, from 66 percent at the start of the month.

Source: Bloomberg